The UK Emergency Budget - Fisher Capital Management Report Part 1

Fisher Capital Management Report - The UK has had an emergency budget and it could have been much worse. The heavy lifting is being done by a rise in VAT bringing in £13 billion. On the spending side the cuts are achieved by freezing public sector pay, indexing state benefits to the CPI rather than the faster-rising RPI and freezing child benefits. State pensions will be indexed to the higher of wages or the CPI but the pension age will be raised to 66 fairly soon.

The disappointment for the UK is on the tax side where compromises with the worst aspects of the Lib Dems are apparent.

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The third quarter saw double-digit returns for the world¹s equity markets. U.S. large-cap stocks, as measured by the Russell 1000 Index, rose 16.07%, bringing that index's year-to-date return to 21.08%. Mid-cap stocks were the best performers overall, with the Russell Mid-Cap Index gaining 20.62% for the third quarter and 32.63% for the year. Value stocks bounced back during the quarter, outp
• U.S. Equities: Fisher Capital Management Reports
As mentioned previously, stocks finished a volatile month in October with a volatile final week of trading, as investors began to question whether the market¹s impressive rally had surpassed the economy¹s ability to generate growth in output and profits.
• Shaw Capital Management: Debit Policy Is Working Well In Uk & Us Part 1 Of 2
World wide recovery appears to have firmed up. In the UK the statistics have lagged behind the anecdotal signs of the same thing. No one still believes the ONS's peculiar decision to call a revised GDP drop of 0.2% in the third quarter (now revised down from an initial estimate of 0.4%)
• The Uk And The Budget: Shaw Capital Management Korea
In the UK it is obvious that there is no possibility of continuing with budget deficits of some 13% of GDP, the present prospect if no action is taken.

CGT goes up to 28% for top earners … a mistake.

The UK Emergency Budget - Fisher Capital Management Report: The 50% top tax rate and associated rise in the top marginal rate on pensions have been left alone. There is a Bank Levy bringing in £2 billion … defensible, just, at this level but it needs remembering that taxpayers generally make money out of bailouts because they get assets at knock-down prices and are able to hold them until times are better. Then there are cuts in corporation taxes on both large and big firms, which is to be welcomed.

But there is no clear logic here; no sense that the tax system is to be remoulded, to give incentives for entrepreneurs, inward investors to the UK and indeed home investors.

The main question that most people will be asking is whether the fiscal arithmetic will come off and the deficit come down as planned to 1.1% of GDP by 2015/16.

The answer depends entirely now on growth. Contrary to most people’s comments, cutting spending as planned is not really that difficult.

The UK Emergency Budget - Fisher Capital Management Report: Much of it will involve simply freezing rogrammes in real terms and also cutting pay in real terms, which the announced freeze on pay will do. Probably some programmes can actually be cut without much trouble given the considerable decline in public sector productivity in the last decade … in other words value for money in the public sector has never been worse.

The main issue is whether UK GDP will grow as forecast, at 2–3% in the next few years. If it does, then revenues will recover substantially.

Already the PSBR figures have come in some £10 billion below the original projections and that seems to be because the original growth figures for 2010 were too low.

There are good reasons for thinking growth of this order will occur. The world economy is recovering rapidly, led by the East — China, India and East Asia. These countries are achieving extremely rapid rates of productivity growth by moving people out of low productivity agriculture mainly into high-productivity manufacturing. Hence their fast growth.

The problem for the West is that these countries also pre-empt available supplies of raw materials such as oil. So if the West grows any faster than its present moderate recovery, it would trigger renewed surges in raw material prices, which in turn would reduce Western productivity growth (factories are less profitable as those prices rise).

So there is a built-in drag on western growth. But nevertheless growth of the 2–3% order is in line with productivity growth at current raw material prices.

One concern for the UK is whether the spending cuts and tax rises themselves will derail the recovery. This is something that Labour is emphasizing.

However, the programme is spread out over five years and this should be gradual enough to be absorbed with monetary policy remaining supportive.

The UK Emergency Budget - Fisher Capital Management Report Part 1

Fisher Capital Management Report - The UK has had an emergency budget and it could have been much worse. The heavy lifting is being done by a rise in VAT bringing in £13 billion. On the spending side the cuts are achieved by freezing public sector pay, indexing state benefits to the CPI rather than the faster-rising RPI and freezing child benefits. State pensions will be indexed to the higher of wages or the CPI but the pension age will be raised to 66 fairly soon.

The disappointment for the UK is on the tax side where compromises with the worst aspects of the Lib Dems are apparent.

Related Coverage

• Fisher Capital Management Reports: International Equities
The third quarter saw double-digit returns for the world¹s equity markets. U.S. large-cap stocks, as measured by the Russell 1000 Index, rose 16.07%, bringing that index's year-to-date return to 21.08%. Mid-cap stocks were the best performers overall, with the Russell Mid-Cap Index gaining 20.62% for the third quarter and 32.63% for the year. Value stocks bounced back during the quarter, outp
• U.S. Equities: Fisher Capital Management Reports
As mentioned previously, stocks finished a volatile month in October with a volatile final week of trading, as investors began to question whether the market¹s impressive rally had surpassed the economy¹s ability to generate growth in output and profits.
• Shaw Capital Management: Debit Policy Is Working Well In Uk & Us Part 1 Of 2
World wide recovery appears to have firmed up. In the UK the statistics have lagged behind the anecdotal signs of the same thing. No one still believes the ONS's peculiar decision to call a revised GDP drop of 0.2% in the third quarter (now revised down from an initial estimate of 0.4%)
• The Uk And The Budget: Shaw Capital Management Korea
In the UK it is obvious that there is no possibility of continuing with budget deficits of some 13% of GDP, the present prospect if no action is taken.

CGT goes up to 28% for top earners … a mistake.

The UK Emergency Budget - Fisher Capital Management Report: The 50% top tax rate and associated rise in the top marginal rate on pensions have been left alone. There is a Bank Levy bringing in £2 billion … defensible, just, at this level but it needs remembering that taxpayers generally make money out of bailouts because they get assets at knock-down prices and are able to hold them until times are better. Then there are cuts in corporation taxes on both large and big firms, which is to be welcomed.

But there is no clear logic here; no sense that the tax system is to be remoulded, to give incentives for entrepreneurs, inward investors to the UK and indeed home investors.

The main question that most people will be asking is whether the fiscal arithmetic will come off and the deficit come down as planned to 1.1% of GDP by 2015/16.

The answer depends entirely now on growth. Contrary to most people’s comments, cutting spending as planned is not really that difficult.

The UK Emergency Budget - Fisher Capital Management Report: Much of it will involve simply freezing rogrammes in real terms and also cutting pay in real terms, which the announced freeze on pay will do. Probably some programmes can actually be cut without much trouble given the considerable decline in public sector productivity in the last decade … in other words value for money in the public sector has never been worse.

The main issue is whether UK GDP will grow as forecast, at 2–3% in the next few years. If it does, then revenues will recover substantially.

Already the PSBR figures have come in some £10 billion below the original projections and that seems to be because the original growth figures for 2010 were too low.

There are good reasons for thinking growth of this order will occur. The world economy is recovering rapidly, led by the East — China, India and East Asia. These countries are achieving extremely rapid rates of productivity growth by moving people out of low productivity agriculture mainly into high-productivity manufacturing. Hence their fast growth.

The problem for the West is that these countries also pre-empt available supplies of raw materials such as oil. So if the West grows any faster than its present moderate recovery, it would trigger renewed surges in raw material prices, which in turn would reduce Western productivity growth (factories are less profitable as those prices rise).

So there is a built-in drag on western growth. But nevertheless growth of the 2–3% order is in line with productivity growth at current raw material prices.

One concern for the UK is whether the spending cuts and tax rises themselves will derail the recovery. This is something that Labour is emphasizing.

However, the programme is spread out over five years and this should be gradual enough to be absorbed with monetary policy remaining supportive.

Fisher Capital Management- Financial Market August 2010

Fisher Capital Management- Financial Markets: Sentiment in the financial markets has improved over the past month. The global economic recovery is continuing, so far there have been no sovereign debt defaults, and there has been a modest recovery in the euro. Investors and traders therefore appear to have concluded that the gloom was overdone.

But there has been evidence of a worsening situation in Spain, and the decision by the Chinese authorities to adopt a “more flexible” towards renminbi has also raised some concerns about the growth prospects for the Chinese economy.

Fisher Capital Management- Equity Markets: All the major equity markets, and the emerging markets, have improved over the past month.

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• Market Overview December 2009: Fisher Capital Management
Market Overview December 2009: Fisher Capital Management - Stocks closed lower in October for the first time in seven months, as investors questioned whether the huge rally off the March lows had exceeded the economy's ability to generate growth in output and profits.
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The third quarter saw double-digit returns for the world¹s equity markets. U.S. large-cap stocks, as measured by the Russell 1000 Index, rose 16.07%, bringing that index's year-to-date return to 21.08%. Mid-cap stocks were the best performers overall, with the Russell Mid-Cap Index gaining 20.62% for the third quarter and 32.63% for the year. Value stocks bounced back during the quarter, outp
• Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management
The main feature of the foreign exchange markets over the past month has been the further sharp fall in the euro. There has been no real change in the background economic situation in the euro-zone; but there has been a serious deterioration in the financial background as doubts have increased about the ability of Greece and some other periphery countries to cope with their massive fiscal deficits and service their sovereign debts.
• Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Fisher Capital Management Seoul
Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Fisher Capital Management Seoul - Conditions in the government bond markets have remained very difficult over the past month,

Wall Street has outperformed markets elsewhere because of some welcome economic data; there have been strong gains in most of the mainland European markets as the sovereign debt crisis has appeared to ease; the UK market has welcomed the measures by the new coalition government to address the problems of the huge UK fiscal deficit; and the Japanese market has also moved slightly higher. Corporate results have been satisfactory; and this has helped to improve sentiment

amongst investors.

Government Bond Markets have had another unusual month.

The sovereign debt crisis might have been expected to lead to a general weakness in bond markets; but the main effect has been to produce aggressive switching for the “weaker” markets to the “stronger” ones, and a further widening of the yield curve.

As a result the major markets are unchanged or only slightly lower at a time when the “weaker” markets, especially in Southern Europe, have continued their sharp declines. Slow economic growth and

Low short-term interest rates are continuing to provide support. Currencies: The improvement in sentiment in the markets has led to a movement of funds out of the “safe havens” of the dollar and the yen into commodity-related currencies and “riskier” assets. Both the dollar and the yen are therefore slightly weaker over the

Month; and this movement has also eased some of the pressure on the euro, and allowed it to recover.

Sterling has also improved as the markets have welcomed the measures introduced by the new UK government to reduce the fiscal deficit.

Fisher Capital Management- Short-Term Interest Rates: There have been no changes in short term interest rates over the past month in the major financial markets.

Fisher Capital Management- Commodity markets: have produced a mixed performance over the past month, with some weakness in base metal prices, but strong gains in the prices of cocoa, coffee, oil and precious metals.

Fisher Capital Management - Japan Elects a New Premier Part 2

Fisher Capital ManagementEight and a half months after riding the Democratic Party of Japan’s (DPJ) historic lower house victory into office, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama announced his resignation, having haphazardly frittered away a chest brimming with political capital.

Major newspapers said that Hatoyama was resigning mainly for two reasons: his failure to keep his promise to relocate the functions of US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, Okinawa, out of Okinawa Prefecture, and a political funding scandal that included his mother’s provision of some ¥1.26 billion to him over years.

Fisher Capital Management -Japan Elects a New Premier Part 2:Instead of deregulation and lower corporate taxes, he envisions increased employment and consumption through focused government spending in nursing, medicine and other social welfare fields.
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    * Fisher Capital Management: Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Part2
      Fisher Capital Management: Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Part 2 - Our position remains unchanged; any existing exposure to bonds should be further reduced in favor of US & Euro equities.
    * Fisher Capital Management: Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Part2
      Fisher Capital Management: Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Part 2 - Our position remains unchanged; any existing exposure to bonds should be further reduced in favor of US & Euro equities.
    * The UK Emergency Budget - Fisher Capital Management Report Part 1
      Fisher Capital Management Report - The UK has had an emergency budget and it could have been much worse.
    * Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Fisher Capital Management Seoul
      Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Fisher Capital Management Seoul - Conditions in the government bond markets have remained very difficult over the past month,

But some economists expressed doubts; they say there is no guarantee that the positive effect of government spending can steadily outpace the negative effects of tax hikes.

Kan seems to be open to the idea of raising Japan’s consumption tax from its current level of 5%, though the approach of the upperhouse election on July and concerns over a political backlash suggest caution will be the government’s modus operandi.

“Any rise in the consumption tax rate must be offset by lower levies on daily goods as well as refunds for low-income households”, he recently said. But he also hopes to reduce corporate taxes from the current 40% rate to around 25%, in line with other major countries. In the foreign exchange market, Kan has earned a reputation as a weak-yen advocate. “The business community says that a yen in the mid-90s against the dollar is appropriate, so it would be better

if it weakens a bit further”, he said in January, shortly after becoming finance minister.

Fisher Capital Management -Japan Elects a New Premier Part 2:Market observers believe that Kan still supports a weaker yen and that the Japanese currency could depreciate against the US dollar. Regarding monetary policy, Kan is generally considered an advocate of inflation-targeting and quantitative easing. As finance minister, he has put some political pressure on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to fight deflation more aggressively, he nudged the BOJ to double a special bank lending program introduced in December. The bond market believes Kan is a wise choice to manage the sustainability of Japan’s government debt.

The DPJ had promised to unveil a long-term plan to improve public finances. However, “postponement is likely because of the current political churn, and any real ‘meat’ in the plan will probably not be disclosed until after the Upper House election” … says Flemming Nielsen, senior analyst at Danske research.

Kan is a self-made man, ascending into politics after years toiling in citizen movements and he has a reputation as a quick learner and a pragmatic politician, with sharp elbows and an aversion to any criticism.

The country he now leads is facing dire long-term problems that beg for strong leadership, including a staggering level of public debt, a stagnant economy, and an ageing population. He has a few weeks to fix the impression left by nine months of incompetent DPJ governance.

If he fails, the party will be routed in the elections for the Diet’s upper house.